Commentary on Land Cover Change

Land cover changes, changes in the biophysical characteristics of the earth's surface, and land use, determined by the goals of man-powered use, are two of the most important determining factors of global environmental changes the causes for which are manifold and complex. Next to naturally influential factors such as climate, terrain, hydrology (water), and vegetation, the socio-economical factors (the man-powered use) play the largest role (Schinninger 2008).

The consequences of these man-caused land cover changes can be categorised into indirect- and direct effects. Direct effects, such as transformation, damage, and fragmentation (dissection) of land cover lead to increased erosion (abrasion of ground material through, for example, water), changes in water circulation, the nutrient cycle, and the heat balance. Indirect effects span from changes of species assemblage to the loss of biodiversity (Schinninger 2008).

Assessment of Future Land Cover

"It is exceedingly difficult, and probably not even possible, to predict the complex interplay of social, economic, and demographic factors and how they will alter land cover in future." (DeFries et al. 2002, cited from Schinninger 2008).

Regardless of the enormous difficulty to predict future land cover and land cover changes, it is forecasted by calculations that they will occur mainly in the tropics (Voldoire 2006).

Changes in land cover and land use influence the climate of the future. Further decisive man-induced factors for the climate are larger concentrations of greenhouse gasses and aerosols (fine particles in the atmosphere). The man-powered changes of vegetation through urbanisation, deforestation, and agriculture, however, are often not included in the climate simulations of the future (Lamptey et al. 2005).